How Many Jobs will be Created?

 

The Political Economy Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst (PERI) projects that investment in green projects will create more jobs than other methods of stimulating the economy.  In its report, “Green Recovery,” PERI calculates that $100 billion spent by the federal government on green initiatives can create more jobs than the $100 billion direct payment to tax payers did in 2008. It is estimated that the direct payment resulted in saving or creating 1.7 million jobs.[1]

 

Green initiatives create more jobs than an equivalent amount spent subsidizing fossil fuels. If that amount was spent on oil, the job creation would be in the range of 542,000.[2]

 

On the other hand, an estimated $100 billion in green stimulus (the amount PERI recommended prior to the last presidential election and the formulation of Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) was estimated to create the following jobs:

 

Green Jobs         Numbers

                        Created or

                        Retained

Direct                935,200     (Directly contribute to energy savings)

Indirect              586,000     (Indirectly generated through suppliers

                                        and transportation of energy products)

Induced             496,000     (Retail and wholesale generated when

                                        green workers shop)

_____________________

Total              1,999,200[3]

 

PERI says the reason a green economy creates more jobs is because it is more labor-intensive work, and most of the work is done on a local level, whereas more of the expense on the tax payer rebate side is for goods and most on the oil side is purchase of a foreign-produced non-renewable product.[4]

 

In an earlier study, PERI identified the six key job areas that are used to determine direct impact on global warming that comprise the nearly 1 million anticipated to work directly in the green economy within a few years: building retrofit, mass transit, energy efficiency, hybrid and biodiesel vehicles, wind power, solar power, and cellulosic biomass fuels. The study is based on an analysis of green jobs in 12 states.  

 

A vast number of jobs in these strategic categories are already in existence.  In the future people will simply turn their skill set toward creating a green environment, and new individuals will be trained to fill in the shortages created by rapid advances in the green economy.[5] 

 

The PERI study projects that 9% of the total US job market will be composed of green jobs across a wide range of occupations and will be present in all states and at all income levels.[6]

 

The PERI studies predict green job growth fairly conservatively compared with some other projections.  The U.S. Conference of Mayors “Green Jobs” study projects out 30 years starting with a base in 2006 of an estimated 750,000[7] existing green jobs in the following categories:

 

§  Renewable energy

§  Energy efficiency retrofits

§  Renewable transportation fuel

§  Engineering, legal, research, consulting in green technologies

 

This study looks at what will happen to jobs in these green categories if the federal government meets U.S. Conference of Mayors’ targets to fund energy efficiency and conservation block grants at $4 billion annually; increase commitments to public transit; and “green” the tax code.  In addition, 900 mayors have committed to reduce CO₂ emissions by 7% from 1990 levels by 2012.  With such policies and federal expenditures in place (based on pre-recession analysis) the Conference of Mayors believes the green sector could provide as much as 10% of new job growth over the next 30 years.[8]

 

Here are the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ projections through 2038 within the green job categories:

 

Potential New Jobs	2018	2028	2038
Renewable energy	407,200	802,000	1,236,800
Energy efficiency	81,000	81,000	81,000
Green transportation fuel	1,205,700	1,437,700	1,492,000
Engineering, legal, research, consulting	846,900	1,160,300	1,404,900
Total	2,540,800	3,481,000	4,214,700

Source: “Current and potential green jobs in the U.S. economy: Green jobs in U.S. metro areas,” U.S. Conference of Mayors, prepared by Global Insight (October 2008), p. 17

 

The U.S. Conference of Mayors report does not take into account indirect and induced new job activity.  When these are taken into consideration, the new job projections due entirely or in part from the growing green economy could be double the Mayors’ projections.

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